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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
NS130x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188joseph00677RN1
Record (consensus markets)45% (368–445, n=813)46% (131–154, n=285)50% (10–10, n=20)47% (13868–15346, n=29214)
Consensus PnL$427K$19.1M$5.3M$13.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #105was PM monthly #715PM monthly #2PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus100% (6 of 6 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position83% (5 of 6 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +6 pts n=135, ROI +6%
  • Esports +2 pts n=360, ROI −1%
  • NBA +12 pts n=31, ROI −3%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicTennis −3 pts, n=191College Basketball −12 pts, n=174——
Settled positions, side won44% of 804 at avg 43¢, ROI −2%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢31% (won 10% of 251)0% (won 17% of 6)12% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢27% (won 40% of 220)42% (won 46% of 565)6% (won 0% of 1)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢30% (won 68% of 244)57% (won 51% of 766)65% (won 73% of 11)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up11% (won 87% of 89)0% (won 100% of 4)18% (won 67% of 3)32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.