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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| NatoAlfista | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (4154–4221, n=8375) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $23K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #994 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 8 open) | no open consensus position | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 89% (146 of 164 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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|
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 94% of 2443 at avg 46¢, ROI +43% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 81% of 261) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 48% (won 95% of 1164) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 41% (won 97% of 1006) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 83% of 12) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NatoAlfista | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat opposite sides · consensus Jan Kumstat | Joel Schwaerzler $115 | — | Jan Kumstat $9.7K | — |