Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 50% (4073–4115, n=8188) · was PM monthly #994 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.7K
Record
4073W / 4115L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 8188 settled
Batting Avg
88.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1728
Source
PM monthly #994
Trades
1,423
Markets
8,700
Volume
$568.1K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 9 on the consensus side (44%)- Aquila Basket Trento vs. Maxima RomaMaxima Roma $245 · now 61¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
- Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Over $109 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $82 · now 72¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Adolfo Vallejo)
- Will SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?Yes $58 · now 45¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Hamburg Towers vs. Mitteldeutscher BCMitteldeutscher BC $29 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Spread: Jets (-2.5)Jets $20 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Raiders)
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over $20 · now 44¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $15 · now 44¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,402 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 46¢- Tennis
+51 pts
side won 95% of 504 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +50%
- College Football
+49 pts
side won 99% of 532 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +48%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 97% of 256 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +28%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 81% of 260)
- 30–50¢: 48%(won 94% of 1144)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 97% of 986)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 83% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.