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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
OrwellFactoryRN100gringo00
Record (consensus markets)59% (329–231, n=560)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)75% (6–2, n=8)
Consensus PnL$1.4K$13.4M$3.5M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #991PM monthly #24 + pinnedwas PM monthly #19
Sides with the consensus55% (6 of 11 open)53% (54 of 101 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • F1 +6 pts n=74, ROI +15%
  • NBA +9 pts n=39, ROI +6%
  • Geopolitics +6 pts n=15, ROI +1%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won60% of 559 at avg 58¢, ROI +2%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 20% of 66)10% (won 56% of 2534)0%
Entries 30–50¢23% (won 38% of 128)22% (won 94% of 5497)0%
Entries 50–70¢32% (won 67% of 180)36% (won 99% of 8897)100% (won 86% of 7)
Entries 70¢ and up33% (won 83% of 185)31% (won 100% of 7736)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketOrwellFactoryRN100gringo00
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.1KYes $108—