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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Tolkonevminus3 | RN1 | sainttroplay | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (64–46, n=110) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$22K | $14.8M | $4.4M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #891 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 54% (30 of 56 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 78 at avg 70¢, ROI +17% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 50% of 8) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 33% (won 92% of 26) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 54% (won 98% of 42) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.