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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market64% (1101–632, n=1733)75% (2553–858, n=3411)52% (414–381, n=795)
Consensus PnL—$4.6M$3.6M$2.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #1000PM monthly #109PM monthly #66Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus13% (14 of 109 open)73% (76 of 104 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
  • Soccer +19 pts n=32, ROI +31%
  • NHL +3 pts n=601, ROI +3%
  • NBA +11 pts n=45, ROI +13%
Weakest topic—NFL −8 pts, n=147Crypto −1 pts, n=46Entertainment −21 pts, n=12
Settled positions, side won—64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%55% of 745 at avg 51¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢—13% (won 14% of 187)6% (won 14% of 145)3% (won 27% of 26)
Entries 30–50¢—19% (won 39% of 269)16% (won 48% of 367)41% (won 50% of 302)
Entries 50–70¢—23% (won 57% of 328)23% (won 60% of 509)51% (won 58% of 380)
Entries 70¢ and up—44% (won 94% of 622)55% (won 96% of 1235)5% (won 89% of 37)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.