Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

sainttroplay: no tracked trader by that name or wallet.

Traders side by side
beachboy4haveagooddayndb1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market35% (1633–2984, n=4617)63% (993–578, n=1571)
Consensus PnL—$22K$4.8M
Tracked as—PM monthly #118PM monthly #95
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position88% (30 of 34 open)71% (52 of 73 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Elections −2 pts, n=690NFL −9 pts, n=144
Settled positions, side won—55% of 3042 at avg 57¢, ROI +1%64% of 1398 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢—39% (won 1% of 1182)13% (won 15% of 186)
Entries 30–50¢—3% (won 42% of 106)19% (won 39% of 267)
Entries 50–70¢—6% (won 62% of 169)23% (won 58% of 326)
Entries 70¢ and up—52% (won 96% of 1585)44% (won 94% of 619)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4haveagooddayndb1
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $66Yes $379
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $9No $12