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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ferdinand2 | RN1 | surfandturf | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (647–656, n=1303) | 47% (13860–15343, n=29203) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 46% (131–154, n=285) |
| Consensus PnL | $63K | $13.4M | $4.1M | $19.0M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #491 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #715 |
| Sides with the consensus | 57% (43 of 75 open) | 80% (4 of 5 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=419 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 554 at avg 52¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 24% (won 5% of 131) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 0% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 39% of 132) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 42% (won 46% of 565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 23% (won 64% of 130) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 57% (won 51% of 766) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 88% of 161) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 0% (won 100% of 4) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ferdinand2 | RN1 | surfandturf | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud opposite sides · consensus Isabella Shinikova | Isabella Shinikova $10 | Dune Vaissaud $273 | — | — |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana same side · consensus Mary Stoiana | Mary Stoiana $19 | Mary Stoiana $21K | — | — |