Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana

23 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Mary Stoiana (62%) · Mary Stoiana at 95¢ · $232K held · ends Nov 9

Venus Williams5¢Mary Stoiana95¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mary Stoiana

Consensus Traders

Mary Stoiana 62%

Total Value

$231.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 95.3¢

+6% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralMary Stoiana at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mary Stoiana

23 of 37 top traders (62%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Venus Williams5%

Mary Stoiana95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mary Stoiana23 traders

Total Value$225.2K

Total Shares247,894

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Venus Williams14 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares54,480

Combined PnL-$399.11

Mary Stoiana — 62%Venus Williams — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Mary Stoiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMary Stoiana 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMary Stoiana 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mary Stoiana 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Mary Stoianaavg 90.1¢	$132.4K	$127.1K	$-5.2K	96% 43-2 (45)
MO Momo63	Mary Stoianaavg 92¢	$20.0K	$21.0K	+$1.0K	93% 897-63 (960)
RN1	Mary Stoianaavg 90.3¢	$17.3K	$17.6K	+$256.36	54% 58124-50358 (108482)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Mary Stoianaavg 85¢	$11.4K	$12.5K	+$1.1K	52% 5700-5266 (10966)
DV dv-pm	Mary Stoianaavg 81¢	$9.1K	$9.7K	+$617.1	49% 3236-3320 (6556)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Mary Stoianaavg 89.5¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	+$204.41	66% 582-303 (885)
UP UpTheBlues	Mary Stoianaavg 94.2¢	$7.6K	$7.3K	-$259.83	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
FL Flaznorp	Mary Stoianaavg 94.3¢	$7.3K	$6.9K	-$404	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
0F 0F62	Mary Stoianaavg 85.4¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$67.78	53% 2121-1865 (3986)
NA Nathan8sCTR	Venus Williamsavg 16.8¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	-$678.35	12% 3-23 (26)
65 6512395314597884	Mary Stoianaavg 92¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$316.75	49% 2924-3042 (5966)
1L 1lovejump	Mary Stoianaavg 93.1¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$48.73	53% 677-604 (1281)
GR graziek99	Mary Stoianaavg 94¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$19.77	87% 463-69 (532)
NO NotJump	Mary Stoianaavg 90¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$73	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mary Stoianaavg 92¢	$988.58	$999.24	+$10.65	52% 14025-12786 (26811)
38 38791873984189	Mary Stoianaavg 89.1¢	$1.5K	$868.29	-$83.49	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
tradecraftCTR	Venus Williamsavg 10¢	$600	$810	+$210	51% 6151-5871 (12022)
FY fydiCTR	Venus Williamsavg 12.2¢	$610	$675	+$65	50% 309-313 (622)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Venus Williamsavg 12¢	$533.17	$599.34	+$66.17	61% 13844-8749 (22593)
0xheavy888	Mary Stoianaavg 85.4¢	$432.11	$437.76	+$5.65	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Venus Williamsavg 12.7¢	$379.62	$404.59	+$24.97	59% 4098-2905 (7003)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Venus Williamsavg 12¢	$340.4	$382.95	+$42.55	37% 731-1227 (1958)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Venus Williamsavg 13.3¢	$336.28	$340.47	+$4.19	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
EU Eulhunter	Mary Stoianaavg 84.1¢	$224.97	$248.15	+$23.18	54% 5904-4953 (10857)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Venus Williamsavg 11.4¢	$160.87	$189.8	+$28.93	60% 4146-2784 (6930)

999585

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$132,372.84

Value

$127.1K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

96%

43-2 (45)

Momo63

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$19,972.21

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

93%

897-63 (960)

RN1

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$17,326.38

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$256.36

Record

54%

58124-50358 (108482)

CandleHammerDrums

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$11,364.72

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

5700-5266 (10966)

dv-pm

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$9,088.2

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$617.1

Record

49%

3236-3320 (6556)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$8,869.55

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$204.41

Record

66%

582-303 (885)

UpTheBlues

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$7,601.01

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$259.83

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

Flaznorp

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$7,325.3

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$404

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

0F62

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$5,074.03

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$67.78

Record

53%

2121-1865 (3986)

Nathan8sCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$3,421.36

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$678.35

Record

12%

3-23 (26)

6512395314597884

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$2,481.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$316.75

Record

49%

2924-3042 (5966)

1lovejump

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$2,320.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$48.73

Record

53%

677-604 (1281)

graziek99

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$1,239.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$19.77

Record

87%

463-69 (532)

NotJump

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$1,106

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$73

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$988.58

Value

$999.24

PnL

+$10.65

Record

52%

14025-12786 (26811)

38791873984189

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$1,460.07

Value

$868.29

PnL

-$83.49

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

tradecraftCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$600

Value

$810

PnL

+$210

Record

51%

6151-5871 (12022)

fydiCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$610

Value

$675

PnL

+$65

Record

50%

309-313 (622)

LilybaeumCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$533.17

Value

$599.34

PnL

+$66.17

Record

61%

13844-8749 (22593)

0xheavy888

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$432.11

Value

$437.76

PnL

+$5.65

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

Bagwell306CTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$379.62

Value

$404.59

PnL

+$24.97

Record

59%

4098-2905 (7003)

mouzsynapseCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$340.4

Value

$382.95

PnL

+$42.55

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$336.28

Value

$340.47

PnL

+$4.19

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

Eulhunter

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$224.97

Value

$248.15

PnL

+$23.18

Record

54%

5904-4953 (10857)

thestingsnakeCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$160.87

Value

$189.8

PnL

+$28.93

Record

60%

4146-2784 (6930)

Research grade

NeutralMary Stoiana at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Mary Stoiana

23 of 37 top traders (62%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Mary Stoiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMary Stoiana 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMary Stoiana 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mary Stoiana 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mary Stoiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.