Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
iWasEnoughRN1pleaseplease123
Record (consensus markets)55% (5265–4240, n=9505)47% (13860–15341, n=29201)49% (345–353, n=698)
Consensus PnL$37K$13.4M$3.2M
Tracked asPM monthly #335PM monthly #24 + pinnedwas PM monthly #92
Sides with the consensus65% (67 of 103 open)83% (5 of 6 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topicEsports −2 pts, n=303—MLB −1 pts, n=694
Settled positions, side won50% of 1914 at avg 47¢, ROI +1%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%49% of 694 at avg 51¢, ROI −1%
Entries under 30¢26% (won 17% of 507)10% (won 57% of 2537)0% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢29% (won 38% of 559)22% (won 94% of 5518)38% (won 43% of 266)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 64% of 461)36% (won 99% of 8928)61% (won 54% of 426)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 92% of 387)32% (won 100% of 7821)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketiWasEnoughRN1pleaseplease123
Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat
opposite sides · consensus Jan Kumstat
Joel Schwaerzler $36Jan Kumstat $9.7K—
Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker
opposite sides · consensus Michal Krajci
Niels Visker $13Michal Krajci $270—
Bratislava 2: Lucas Poullain vs Yannik Kelm
opposite sides · consensus Lucas Poullain
Lucas Poullain $10Yannik Kelm $3—