Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Michal Krajci, while the market favors Niels Visker (62%). 9 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker
9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Michal Krajci (47%) · Michal Krajci at 39¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Michal Krajci
19
Michal Krajci 47%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$296.16
45.9¢ → 38.5¢
-16% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralMichal Krajci at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Niels Visker 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Niels Viskeravg 56.5¢ | $989.94 | $972.95 | -$16.99 | 58% 48507-34663 (83170) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR | Michal Krajciavg 42.2¢ | $648.18 | $843.19 | +$195.01 | 52% 5700-5266 (10966) |
 88M | Niels Viskeravg 39¢ | $402.27 | $722.02 | +$319.75 | 42% 799-1095 (1894) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Michal Krajciavg 42.7¢ | $509.96 | $459.34 | -$50.62 | 47% 12988-14555 (27543) |
 RN1CTR | Michal Krajciavg 52.3¢ | $691.36 | $389.98 | -$301.38 | 54% 58124-50358 (108482) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Niels Viskeravg 43¢ | $290.25 | $303.75 | +$13.5 | 48% 1151-1260 (2411) |
NO NotJump | Niels Viskeravg 29¢ | $122.67 | $296.1 | +$173.43 | 43% 7727-10453 (18180) |
 TRCM | Niels Viskeravg 55¢ | $247.5 | $263.25 | +$15.75 | 55% 3973-3204 (7177) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Michal Krajciavg 48¢ | $106.12 | $70.92 | -$35.2 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 70¢ | $67.62 | $67.62 | +$0 | 53% 3232-2843 (6075) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 68.9¢ | $45.79 | $66.23 | +$20.44 | 52% 14025-12786 (26811) |
| └ Niels Visker leg | Niels Viskeravg 68.9¢ | $41.83 | $42.78 | +$0.96 | |
| └ Michal Krajci leg | Michal Krajciavg 36¢ | $28.6 | $23.44 | +$19.48 | |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 49¢ | $79.09 | $62.15 | -$11.93 | 60% 4146-2784 (6930) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 75¢ | $51 | $47.6 | -$3.4 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 76¢ | $13.76 | $13.49 | -$0.27 | 53% 8072-7284 (15356) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $5.75 | -$0.85 | 51% 994-958 (1952) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 23¢ | $4.83 | $5.57 | +$0.74 | 46% 7287-8596 (15883) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 74¢ | $5.62 | $5.31 | -$0.3 | 86% 6392-1078 (7470) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 42¢ | $2.14 | $3.56 | +$1.42 | 54% 5904-4953 (10857) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $3 | -$1.6 | 51% 6151-5871 (12022) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 66¢ | $1.65 | $0.75 | -$0.9 | 53% 6370-5754 (12124) |
Invested
$989.94
Value
$972.95
PnL
-$16.99
Record
58%
48507-34663 (83170)
Invested
$648.18
Value
$843.19
PnL
+$195.01
Record
52%
5700-5266 (10966)
88MInvested
$402.27
Value
$722.02
PnL
+$319.75
Record
42%
799-1095 (1894)
Invested
$509.96
Value
$459.34
PnL
-$50.62
Record
47%
12988-14555 (27543)
RN1CTRInvested
$691.36
Value
$389.98
PnL
-$301.38
Record
54%
58124-50358 (108482)
Invested
$290.25
Value
$303.75
PnL
+$13.5
Record
48%
1151-1260 (2411)
Invested
$122.67
Value
$296.1
PnL
+$173.43
Record
43%
7727-10453 (18180)
TRCMInvested
$247.5
Value
$263.25
PnL
+$15.75
Record
55%
3973-3204 (7177)
Invested
$106.12
Value
$70.92
PnL
-$35.2
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Invested
$67.62
Value
$67.62
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3232-2843 (6075)
Invested
$45.79
Value
$66.23
PnL
+$20.44
Record
52%
14025-12786 (26811)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.09
Value
$62.15
PnL
-$11.93
Record
60%
4146-2784 (6930)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$51
Value
$47.6
PnL
-$3.4
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.49
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
8072-7284 (15356)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$0.85
Record
51%
994-958 (1952)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$0.74
Record
46%
7287-8596 (15883)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$5.62
Value
$5.31
PnL
-$0.3
Record
86%
6392-1078 (7470)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$1.42
Record
54%
5904-4953 (10857)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$3
PnL
-$1.6
Record
51%
6151-5871 (12022)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
6370-5754 (12124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Niels Visker — $972.95
CandleHammerDrums
CTRMichal Krajci — $843.19
88M
Niels Visker — $722.02
38791873984189
CTRMichal Krajci — $459.34
RN1
CTRMichal Krajci — $389.98
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Niels Visker — $303.75
NotJump
Niels Visker — $296.1
TRCM
Niels Visker — $263.25
Flaznorp
CTRMichal Krajci — $70.92
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
Niels Visker — $67.62