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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
surfandturfpleaseplease1230xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)52% (273–252, n=525)49% (345–353, n=698)61% (495–320, n=815)68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL$4.1M$3.2M$4.8M$5.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #326was PM monthly #92was PM monthly #51was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus50% (1 of 2 open)no open consensus position57% (4 of 7 open)100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • MMA +4 pts n=148, ROI +10%
  • NBA +4 pts n=76, ROI +12%
none with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topicNFL −11 pts, n=58MLB −1 pts, n=694Soccer ±0 pts, n=115NBA −6 pts, n=93
Settled positions, side won53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0%49% of 694 at avg 51¢, ROI −1%60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢20% (won 12% of 109)0% (won 0% of 2)15% (won 29% of 125)3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢21% (won 46% of 114)38% (won 43% of 266)34% (won 58% of 283)30% (won 57% of 63)
Entries 50–70¢33% (won 60% of 176)61% (won 54% of 426)43% (won 69% of 354)54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up26% (won 82% of 137)0%7% (won 80% of 60)14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketsurfandturfpleaseplease1230xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816beachboy4
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.7K—Yes $6.4K—