Consensus PnL $54K · win rate 44% (6446–8060, n=14506) · PM monthly #699 · holds 157 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$54.4K
Record
6446W / 8060L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 14506 settled
Batting Avg
36.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2217
Source
PM monthly #699
Record (90 d)
3732/7512 · 50%
Trades
80,769
Markets
19,906
Volume
$2.9M
Top consensus positions
157 in listed consensus markets · 133 of 157 on the consensus side (85%)- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $574 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?No $440 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (8% of 25)
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $398 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $255 · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 33)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $219 · now 43¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?No $180 · now 76¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $173 · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 2?No $169 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
4,313 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 51¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where cryingbabydicer87's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 48% of 3988 at an average 50¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 42%(won 8% of 1831)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 39% of 590)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 72% of 363)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 96% of 1529)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.