Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$3.9K
-$968.6
99.6¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
19 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$1.74 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
QM QMG-SCALAR | Noavg 99.6¢ | $995.5 | $997 | +$1.5 | 75% 116-39 (155) |
 foodenjoyerCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $739.46 | $862.7 | +$123.24 | 49% 47-49 (96) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $875.44 | $123.28 | -$752.17 | 61% 21345-13641 (34986) |
HO Hourglass | Noavg 99.4¢ | $111.42 | $111.36 | -$0.06 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yes | $96.76 | $96.76 | +$0 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $7.23 | $5.83 | -$90.17 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
12 123987456CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $257.2 | $4.5 | -$252.7 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
Invested
$1,733.92
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$1.74
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$995.5
Value
$997
PnL
+$1.5
Record
75%
116-39 (155)
foodenjoyerCTRInvested
$739.46
Value
$862.7
PnL
+$123.24
Record
49%
47-49 (96)
balthazarCTRInvested
$875.44
Value
$123.28
PnL
-$752.17
Record
61%
21345-13641 (34986)
Invested
$111.42
Value
$111.36
PnL
-$0.06
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$96.76
Value
$96.76
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$5.83
PnL
-$90.17
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$257.2
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$252.7
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.