Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-15.6K

Smart Money Entry

15¢ → 1¢

-93% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares114,003

Combined PnL$-15.6K

No2 traders

Total Value$233.11

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$13.3

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BMM-1CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$15.0K	$1,000	$-14.0K	95% 19-1 (20)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.4¢	$223.02	$231.71	+$13.29	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$625.01	$55	-$549.58	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$626.63	$39.16	-$794.55	52% 284-262 (546)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$62.35	$35.27	-$28.78	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$84	$5	-$79.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$110	$5	-$105.5	56% 973-770 (1743)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$1.39	$1.4	+$0.01	69% 156-69 (225)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.03	$0.6	+$0.57	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

BMM-1CTR

Yes

Invested

$15,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

$-14.0K

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$223.02

Value

$231.71

PnL

+$13.29

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$625.01

Value

$55

PnL

-$549.58

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$626.63

Value

$39.16

PnL

-$794.55

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.35

Value

$35.27

PnL

-$28.78

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

PnL

-$79.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

PnL

-$105.5

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.01

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.57

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4711.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

4811.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.