Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 2?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$12.5K
$146.72
94.8¢ → 98¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$203.78 | 66% 2462-1295 (3757) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $3.8K | $3.5K | -$25.3 | 59% 1078-751 (1829) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 97.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$30.17 | 54% 395-337 (732) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0.34 | 45% 221-274 (495) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 96.3¢ | $981.93 | $993.99 | -$2.73 | 62% 796-492 (1288) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $911.83 | $735.31 | +$1.18 | 59% 2253-1577 (3830) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 97.3¢ | $128.61 | $126.18 | -$0.38 | 59% 882-621 (1503) |
Invested
$3,407.61
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$203.78
Record
66%
2462-1295 (3757)
Invested
$3,788.43
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$25.3
Record
59%
1078-751 (1829)
Invested
$2,092.31
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$30.17
Record
54%
395-337 (732)
Invested
$1,393.73
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.34
Record
45%
221-274 (495)
Invested
$981.93
Value
$993.99
PnL
-$2.73
Record
62%
796-492 (1288)
Invested
$911.83
Value
$735.31
PnL
+$1.18
Record
59%
2253-1577 (3830)
Invested
$128.61
Value
$126.18
PnL
-$0.38
Record
59%
882-621 (1503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.