Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$1.1K
-$268.87
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
26 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.43 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $10.73 | $10.73 | -$156.93 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $4.03 | -$58.88 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $46.68 | $2.99 | -$43.75 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $0.96 | -$14.06 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.24 | $0.26 | -$0.98 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
TY TyshaCTR | Yes | $651.32 | $0.05 | -$0.7 | 72% 8306-3183 (11489) |
Invested
$1,051.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.43
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$10.73
Value
$10.73
PnL
-$156.93
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$58.88
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$46.68
Value
$2.99
PnL
-$43.75
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$14.06
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$0.98
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$651.32
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.7
Record
72%
8306-3183 (11489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.