Consensus PnL $120K · win rate 55% (1837–1501, n=3338) · PM monthly #123 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$120.5K
Record
1837W / 1501L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 3338 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1437
Source
PM monthly #123
Trades
64
Markets
29,065
Volume
$11.9M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 24 on the consensus side (92%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETDown $1.5K · now 100¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (64% of 26)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp $1.3K · now 0¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (60% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ETUp $1.3K · now 100¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETUp $1.3K · now 100¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (79% of 32)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ETDown $924 · now 100¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (52% of 29)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETDown $896 · now 100¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (64% of 27)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ETUp $738 · now 100¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (81% of 30)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ETUp $636 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
Specialties
902 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- Crypto
+35 pts
side won 100% of 902 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 35)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 100% of 118)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 100% of 358)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 100% of 391)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.