Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$109.31

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,644

Combined PnL+$378.27

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL-$268.96

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$68.29	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 69.8¢	$830.35	$905.95	+$75.6	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 75.4¢	$861.33	$1.1K	+$280.56	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.9¢	$680.26	$604.21	-$76.05	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.2¢	$270.51	$295.92	+$55.1	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 76.9¢	$207.9	$245.66	+$41.66	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$207.03	$165.01	-$42.02	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$117.71	$165.01	+$47.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.8¢	$89.32	—	-$89.32
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$299.84	$88.3	-$211.54	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$247.7	—	-$247.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$52.14	$88.3	+$36.17
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$155.56	$184	+$28.44	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$122.08	$184	+$61.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$33.48	—	-$33.48
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$151.54	$90	-$61.54	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.7¢	$69.9	$90	+$20.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$81.64	—	-$81.64
pspspsps5	Upavg 60.3¢	$73.32	$105.89	+$32.57	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$47.3	$70	+$22.7	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 28.3¢	$106.75	—	-$106.75	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$40.95	$56.04	+$15.09	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$40.2	$50	+$9.8	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70¢	$64.93	$53.29	+$5.59	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 35.1¢	$96.11	—	-$96.11	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 85¢	$42.4	$25	-$17.4	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$14.52	—	-$14.52	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 95.6¢	$15.41	$13.13	-$2.28	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$16.05	—	-$16.05	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$11.24	$17.24	+$6	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$16.5	—	-$16.5	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94¢	$6.25	$3.87	-$2.38	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$2.17	—	-$2.17	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,124.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$68.29

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$830.35

Value

$905.95

PnL

+$75.6

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$861.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$280.56

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$680.26

Value

$604.21

PnL

-$76.05

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$270.51

Value

$295.92

PnL

+$55.1

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$207.9

Value

$245.66

PnL

+$41.66

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$207.03

Value

$165.01

PnL

-$42.02

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

Both legs:

Up$117.7171.3¢+$47.3

Down$89.3226.8¢-$89.32

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$299.84

Value

$88.3

PnL

-$211.54

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Down$247.729.6¢-$247.7

Up$52.1459¢+$36.17

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$155.56

Value

$184

PnL

+$28.44

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Both legs:

Up$122.0866.3¢+$61.92

Down$33.4836¢-$33.48

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.54

Value

$90

PnL

-$61.54

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Both legs:

Up$69.977.7¢+$20.1

Down$81.6436.5¢-$81.64

pspspsps5

Invested

$73.32

Value

$105.89

PnL

+$32.57

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$47.3

Value

$70

PnL

+$22.7

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$106.75

Value

—

PnL

-$106.75

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$40.95

Value

$56.04

PnL

+$15.09

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$40.2

Value

$50

PnL

+$9.8

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$64.93

Value

$53.29

PnL

+$5.59

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.11

Value

—

PnL

-$96.11

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$42.4

Value

$25

PnL

-$17.4

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.52

Value

—

PnL

-$14.52

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$2.28

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.05

Value

—

PnL

-$16.05

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$11.24

Value

$17.24

PnL

+$6

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.5

Value

—

PnL

-$16.5

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$2.38

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.17

Value

—

PnL

-$2.17

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8c34c5de...a20efa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793573100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Up — $1.1K

-$68.29

CrouchPredictions

Up — $905.95

+$75.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.1K

+$280.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $604.21

-$76.05

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $295.92

+$55.1

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $245.66

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded