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38
Consensus PnL $189K · win rate 47% (40–45, n=85) · was PM monthly #986 · holds 5 consensus positions
0x38853725...6b7aca77Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$189.4K
Record
40W / 45L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 85 settled
Batting Avg
77.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1932
Source
PM monthly #986
Trades
121
Markets
486
Volume
$5.4M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?No $3.3K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3?Yes $2.1K · now 95¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $292 · now 100¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?No $39 · now 0¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 3?Yes $8 · now 6¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
116 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 63¢- Crypto
+14 pts
side won 77% of 114 · avg entry 63¢
ROI −3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 14% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 89% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 99% of 72)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.