Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 3?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$5.2K
$6.16
94.2¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$24.54 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $267.36 | $259.49 | -$7.87 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $18.78 | $8.24 | -$10.54 | 56% 270-208 (478) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $4.73 | $4.73 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.04 | $0.06 | +$0.02 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$4,903.41
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$24.54
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$267.36
Value
$259.49
PnL
-$7.87
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$18.78
Value
$8.24
PnL
-$10.54
Record
56%
270-208 (478)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.