Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$15.9K
$332.91
92.9¢ → 98.2¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $9.4K | $9.2K | +$361.76 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
EA easypredict | Noavg 88.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$299.74 | 56% 270-208 (478) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$2.98 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
 Facaie | Noavg 98.2¢ | $491.2 | $490.75 | -$0.45 | 93% 1312-105 (1417) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $361.43 | $30.51 | -$325.19 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $24.03 | $24.05 | +$0.04 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$9,425.49
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$361.76
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$3,035.2
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$299.74
Record
56%
270-208 (478)
Invested
$2,877.42
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$2.98
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
FacaieInvested
$491.2
Value
$490.75
PnL
-$0.45
Record
93%
1312-105 (1417)
Invested
$361.43
Value
$30.51
PnL
-$325.19
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$24.03
Value
$24.05
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.