Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$35.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares35,628

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96.1¢	$17.9K	$18.3K	+$468.07	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Noavg 98.4¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$62.96	59% 1064-740 (1804)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 98.6¢	$6.8K	$5.1K	+$67.66	98% 6914-167 (7081)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$37.64	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
SS ssddssd	Noavg 87.5¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$339.2	52% 338-316 (654)
GO gobblewobble	Noavg 90.6¢	$321.98	$311.2	-$11.59	59% 877-611 (1488)
EA easypredict	Noavg 82.7¢	$267.29	$291.84	+$50.03	56% 270-208 (478)
CA Candela	Noavg 99.8¢	$199.6	$199	-$0.3	97% 426-11 (437)
TO Tokor	Noavg 83¢	$157.7	$189.72	+$32.02	62% 795-490 (1285)
Facaie<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$99.8	$99.5	-$0.15	93% 1312-105 (1417)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$17,877.43

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$468.07

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Invested

$5,231.3

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$62.96

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

Sharky6999

Invested

$6,775.18

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$67.66

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

0xDB5

Invested

$2,924.2

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$37.64

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

ssddssd

Invested

$2,451

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$339.2

Record

52%

338-316 (654)

gobblewobble

Invested

$321.98

Value

$311.2

PnL

-$11.59

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

easypredict

Invested

$267.29

Value

$291.84

PnL

+$50.03

Record

56%

270-208 (478)

Candela

Invested

$199.6

Value

$199

PnL

-$0.3

Record

97%

426-11 (437)

Tokor

Invested

$157.7

Value

$189.72

PnL

+$32.02

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

Facaie<$100

Invested

$99.8

Value

$99.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.