Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 73¢ · $54K held · ends Dec 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 72.5¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$42.6K

Total Shares58,086

Combined PnL$-6.9K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares36,728

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 85¢	$42.8K	$36.8K	$-6.0K	63% 353-204 (557)
Roflan-ludomanCTR	Yesavg 18.7¢	$4.8K	$6.9K	+$2.1K	62% 649-396 (1045)
FO forgetfuldory	Noavg 82.4¢	$6.9K	$5.6K	-$766.03	— 5-5 (10)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$117.68	64% 633-352 (985)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$858.9	$840.31	-$18.58	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.2¢	$535.48	$650.95	-$12.05
└ No leg	Noavg 79.6¢	$209.26	$189.36	-$6.53
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$260	$611.23	+$33.96	42% 71-100 (171)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$187.85	$596.7	+$408.85	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$142	$243	+$105.5	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 81.1¢	$1.5K	$223.73	-$150.23	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 19.1¢	$134.59	$190.22	+$59.16	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$13.25	$44.72	+$32.3	38% 567-944 (1511)
ET ethBELIVERCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$6.33	$18.99	+$13.01	40% 25-37 (62)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$11.7	$12.15	+$0.68	50% 147-145 (292)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$42,769.53

Value

$36.8K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

Roflan-ludomanCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,846.52

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

forgetfuldory

Invested

$6,850.58

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$766.03

Record

—

5-5 (10)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,558.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$117.68

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

lissartterARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$858.9

Value

$840.31

PnL

-$18.58

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

Yes$535.4822.2¢-$12.05

No$209.2679.6¢-$6.53

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$260

Value

$611.23

PnL

+$33.96

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$187.85

Value

$596.7

PnL

+$408.85

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$142

Value

$243

PnL

+$105.5

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,517.28

Value

$223.73

PnL

-$150.23

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.59

Value

$190.22

PnL

+$59.16

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$44.72

PnL

+$32.3

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

ethBELIVERCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.33

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$13.01

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.