Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 73¢ · $33K held · ends Dec 31

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 72.5¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares42,611

Combined PnL+$6.5K

No5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,920

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Yesavg 53.8¢	$22.1K	$26.0K	+$5.3K	47% 456-520 (976)
KimJonEn	Yesavg 68.6¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$106.12	75% 946-311 (1257)
FO forgetfuldoryCTR	Noavg 41.7¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$634.34	— 5-5 (10)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 23¢	$336.56	$1.1K	+$738.1	55% 338-273 (611)
CH Champions26CTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$591.29	-$525.3	63% 407-239 (646)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 40.6¢	$498.38	$573.12	+$233.01	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GL Gladius7	Yesavg 70¢	$501	$515.45	+$18.03	48% 90-98 (188)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 60.9¢	$429.19	$507.25	+$81.59	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 13¢	$155.5	$328.95	+$173.44	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Noavg 73.5¢	$735	$275	-$460	57% 766-585 (1351)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$19.63	$70.76	+$51.13	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$27.26	$25.72	-$1.55	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

simpleman

Yes

Invested

$22,102.19

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

KimJonEn

Yes

Invested

$1,872.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$106.12

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

forgetfuldoryCTR

Invested

$1,885.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$634.34

Record

—

5-5 (10)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$336.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$738.1

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

Champions26CTR

Invested

$1,138.1

Value

$591.29

PnL

-$525.3

Record

63%

407-239 (646)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$498.38

Value

$573.12

PnL

+$233.01

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Gladius7

Yes

Invested

$501

Value

$515.45

PnL

+$18.03

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$429.19

Value

$507.25

PnL

+$81.59

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$155.5

Value

$328.95

PnL

+$173.44

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

EatprayloveCTR

Invested

$735

Value

$275

PnL

-$460

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.63

Value

$70.76

PnL

+$51.13

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$27.26

Value

$25.72

PnL

-$1.55

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.