Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 83% (582–116, n=698) · PM monthly #753 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$84.9K
Record
582W / 116L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 698 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#367
Source
PM monthly #753
Trades
201
Markets
784
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $99K · now 84¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $58K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $27K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $9.9K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5Under $799 · now 89¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
601 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 84¢- Esports
+12 pts
side won 94% of 465 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +8%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 97% of 91 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +37%
- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 85% of 26 at an average 91¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 80% of 64)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 96% of 535)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.