Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 41¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$13.6K
$-5.6K
78¢ → 41¢
-47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
361h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $11.0K | $6.0K | $-5.4K | 63% 22-13 (35) |
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.7K | +$725.5 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 56.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$24 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $2.4K | $1.1K | $-1.1K | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 58.7¢ | $244.63 | $246.07 | +$7.7 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
 2B9S | Noavg 17¢ | $51 | $177 | +$129 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $84 | $86 | -$4 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$10,990
Value
$6.0K
PnL
$-5.4K
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
AllByMyseIfInvested
$4,023.98
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$725.5
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
alanhuttonInvested
$1,274
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$24
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
balthazarCTRInvested
$2,358.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$244.63
Value
$246.07
PnL
+$7.7
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
2B9SInvested
$51
Value
$177
PnL
+$129
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$84
Value
$86
PnL
-$4
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.