Consensus PnL $814K · win rate 48% (189–206, n=395) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$814.3K
Record
189W / 206L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 395 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1886
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
46,683
Markets
846
Volume
$24.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 5 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $61K · now 16¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $3.5K · now 7¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Yes $714 · now 3¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes $128 · now 4¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Yes $84 · now 15¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
794 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 48¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 53% of 567 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +2%
- Other Sports
+16 pts
side won 68% of 31 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +15%
- College Basketball
+7 pts
side won 47% of 66 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 41% of 29 at an average 43¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 8% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 48% of 290)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 60% of 400)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 87% of 38)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.