Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$21.68

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 85¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,505

Combined PnL+$241.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$271.07

Total Shares1,651

Combined PnL-$219.53

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 69¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$239.18	54% 229-195 (424)
GA gatorrCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$89.43	$84.46	-$12.42	49% 389-405 (794)
ZP ZptmlCTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$194.38	$71.71	-$122.67	70% 32-14 (46)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$109.39	$59.03	-$50.36	66% 1107-565 (1672)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$89.94	$55.87	-$34.07	66% 955-482 (1437)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$3.35	$4.69	+$1.34	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$1.92	$2.47	+$0.55	52% 5046-4713 (9759)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$1.24	$1.38	+$0.14	72% 1535-585 (2120)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$1,031.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$239.18

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

gatorrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.43

Value

$84.46

PnL

-$12.42

Record

49%

389-405 (794)

ZptmlCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.38

Value

$71.71

PnL

-$122.67

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.39

Value

$59.03

PnL

-$50.36

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.94

Value

$55.87

PnL

-$34.07

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$1.34

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

korda77<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.55

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.8%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.