Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 96¢ · $76K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$76.0K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 96.4¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$75.9K

Total Shares78,734

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$127.75

Total Shares3,500

Combined PnL-$292.25

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 90.6¢	$42.3K	$40.6K	+$2.4K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
IN insidero	Noavg 92.3¢	$14.4K	$15.0K	+$521.46	76% 291-93 (384)
Car	Noavg 92.9¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$27.69	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 91¢	$6.37	$4.8K	+$267.5	85% 605-108 (713)
KR Krass	Noavg 86.9¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$227.43	74% 452-155 (607)
wish-	Noavg 95¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$25.43	79% 1176-319 (1495)
Slowroasted	Noavg 95.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$23.99	88% 1990-279 (2269)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 90.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$99.07	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$3.45	94% 442-28 (470)
Donkov	Noavg 92¢	$415.79	$415.81	+$0.03	71% 968-396 (1364)
GA gatorrCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$420	$127.75	-$292.25	49% 389-405 (794)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 92¢	$92	$96.35	+$4.35	75% 1597-541 (2138)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.82	-$0.08	69% 987-450 (1437)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$1.3	$1.5	+$0.2	72% 484-187 (671)

elmcap2

Invested

$42,348.31

Value

$40.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

insidero

Invested

$14,430.79

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$521.46

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Car

Invested

$5,719.92

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$27.69

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$6.37

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$267.5

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Krass

Invested

$2,084.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$227.43

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

wish-

Invested

$2,098.26

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$25.43

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Slowroasted

Invested

$2,080.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$23.99

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

cocococococo

Invested

$1,504.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$99.07

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,096.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$3.45

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Donkov

Invested

$415.79

Value

$415.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

gatorrCTR

Yes

Invested

$420

Value

$127.75

PnL

-$292.25

Record

49%

389-405 (794)

melganis<$100

Invested

$92

Value

$96.35

PnL

+$4.35

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.08

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.