Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 97¢ · $109K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$108.6K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 96.8¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$107.8K

Total Shares111,298

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$714

Total Shares21,000

Combined PnL-$693

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1871h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE kevtp	Noavg 94.1¢	$61.1K	$63.0K	+$1.7K	80% 227-58 (285)
KE keribit	Noavg 92.4¢	$27.9K	$29.1K	+$1.3K	77% 343-103 (446)
tetrase	Noavg 93.3¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$275.49	61% 839-544 (1383)
Talophex	Noavg 93.8¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$82.21	91% 929-95 (1024)
Bromley86	Noavg 92¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$97.32	90% 728-80 (808)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.7¢	$949.91	$981.95	+$25.45	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
smellyEllie	Noavg 93¢	$930	$969	+$33	50% 970-988 (1958)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 93.3¢	$2.9K	$889.79	+$61.75	66% 1107-565 (1672)
GA gatorrCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$1.5K	$714	-$693	49% 389-405 (794)
Ahpo	Noavg 93.5¢	$372.66	$373.96	+$1.29	87% 1622-251 (1873)
randomWalkingShrimp	Noavg 94¢	$188	$193.8	+$5.5	77% 1204-366 (1570)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$47.12	$48.5	+$1.38	72% 484-187 (671)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.69	+$0.38	75% 1028-338 (1366)

kevtp

Invested

$61,138.77

Value

$63.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

80%

227-58 (285)

keribit

Invested

$27,852.2

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

77%

343-103 (446)

tetrase

Invested

$7,367.13

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$275.49

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Talophex

Invested

$2,621.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$82.21

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Bromley86

Invested

$1,887.92

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$97.32

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$949.91

Value

$981.95

PnL

+$25.45

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

smellyEllie

Invested

$930

Value

$969

PnL

+$33

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$2,942.26

Value

$889.79

PnL

+$61.75

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

gatorrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,470

Value

$714

PnL

-$693

Record

49%

389-405 (794)

Ahpo

Invested

$372.66

Value

$373.96

PnL

+$1.29

Record

87%

1622-251 (1873)

randomWalkingShrimp

Invested

$188

Value

$193.8

PnL

+$5.5

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$47.12

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$1.38

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.38

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1871h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.