Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

24 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 82¢ · $186K held · ends Nov 4

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$186.4K

Combined PnL

$58.7K

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 81.5¢

+13% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

24 of 48 top traders (50%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes24 traders

Total Value$152.0K

Total Shares185,512

Combined PnL+$18.0K

No24 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares188,044

Combined PnL+$40.7K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 53% · 19

Aligned

sharpYes 69% · 13

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 34

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Yesavg 69.8¢	$19.7K	$43.6K	+$6.4K	71% 60-24 (84)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 70¢	$21.8K	$25.6K	+$3.6K	67% 751-378 (1129)
RI Richidd	Yesavg 78¢	$20.1K	$21.0K	+$896.64	46% 47-56 (103)
AP apmt	Yesavg 64.5¢	$10.5K	$13.4K	+$2.8K	74% 64-22 (86)
CA carlos484	Yesavg 82¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$60.96	61% 20-13 (33)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Noavg 29¢	$13.7K	$8.7K	$-4.9K	35% 35-64 (99)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 80¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$125.72	58% 705-521 (1226)
MEPP	Yesavg 70¢	$5.4K	$6.4K	+$892.71	64% 632-352 (984)
BO botbotCTR	Noavg 28¢	$8.4K	$5.4K	$-2.8K	43% 314-418 (732)
GoriIIa	Yesavg 70¢	$4.0K	$4.7K	+$663.06	73% 229-85 (314)
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 72¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$475	— 10-5 (15)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 70¢	$1.6K	$4.1K	+$575	63% 159-95 (254)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Noavg 19.1¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$129.95	57% 766-585 (1351)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 19.4¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$171.9	38% 20-32 (52)
MA Macks22	Yesavg 67¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$507.5	78% 91-25 (116)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 28.5¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	$-1.5K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
FO Folletin	Yesavg 70.7¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$358.28	69% 423-188 (611)
IC ic4creamCTR	Noavg 23.4¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$672.95	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
WordleAddictCTR	Noavg 29.2¢	$3.4K	$2.1K	$-1.3K	61% 941-614 (1555)
OR OrwellFactory	Yesavg 79¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$48.85	57% 352-262 (614)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$158.5	68% 2074-957 (3031)
Car	Yesavg 68.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$192.5	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 26¢	$1.4K	$982.08	-$409.2	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 72¢	$720	$820	+$95	59% 1027-717 (1744)
probabilityCTR	Noavg 29.3¢	$1.2K	$768.88	-$449.81	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Yes

Invested

$19,714.83

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Yes

Invested

$21,839.56

Value

$25.6K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Richidd

Yes

Invested

$20,099.98

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$896.64

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

apmt

Yes

Invested

$10,548.37

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

carlos484

Yes

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$60.96

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

dromedaryyCTR

Invested

$13,654.25

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$6,704.39

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$125.72

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$5,433.7

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$892.71

Record

64%

632-352 (984)

botbotCTR

Invested

$8,399.97

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

GoriIIa

Yes

Invested

$4,035.7

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$663.06

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$3,600

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$475

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$1,586.27

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$575

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

EatprayloveCTR

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$129.95

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$3,731.7

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$171.9

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Macks22

Yes

Invested

$2,344.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$507.5

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$4,256.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

Folletin

Yes

Invested

$2,336.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$358.28

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

ic4creamCTR

Invested

$3,227.57

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$672.95

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

WordleAddictCTR

Invested

$3,352.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

OrwellFactory

Yes

Invested

$1,543.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$48.85

Record

57%

352-262 (614)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$1,459.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$158.5

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Car

Yes

Invested

$1,029.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$192.5

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$1,418.56

Value

$982.08

PnL

-$409.2

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

studmuffin6969

Yes

Invested

$720

Value

$820

PnL

+$95

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

probabilityCTR

Invested

$1,221.63

Value

$768.88

PnL

-$449.81

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

24 of 48 top traders (50%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 53% · 19

Aligned

sharpYes 69% · 13

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 34

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.