Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

31.5¢ → 43.5¢

+38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares35,088

Combined PnL+$4.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,237

Combined PnL-$974.82

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1308h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$5.4K	$7.5K	+$2.1K	61% 203-132 (335)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$2.2K	$3.5K	+$1.3K	46% 49-57 (106)
AN anoin123	Noavg 72.9¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$788.52	47% 474-534 (1008)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 30.8¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$510.02	40% 704-1061 (1765)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$16.95	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$880.18	$643.53	+$195.61	55% 463-373 (836)
CO cowcat	Noavg 73¢	$575.97	$445.78	-$130.18	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 58.4¢	$47.29	$220.97	-$45.17	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 65.1¢	$148.22	$137.28	-$10.93	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
RO rocky42019CTR	Yesavg 37.6¢	$125.44	$130.66	+$5.23	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$102	$130.5	+$28.5	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.4¢	$24.61	$25.23	+$0.62	32% 4493-9634 (14127)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,438.43

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,219.38

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

anoin123

Invested

$3,508.17

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$788.52

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$510.02

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,548.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$16.95

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$880.18

Value

$643.53

PnL

+$195.61

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

cowcat

Invested

$575.97

Value

$445.78

PnL

-$130.18

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$47.29

Value

$220.97

PnL

-$45.17

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sbimbg

Invested

$148.22

Value

$137.28

PnL

-$10.93

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

rocky42019CTR

Yes

Invested

$125.44

Value

$130.66

PnL

+$5.23

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$102

Value

$130.5

PnL

+$28.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.61

Value

$25.23

PnL

+$0.62

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1308h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.5%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$119.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

219.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.