Consensus PnL -$12K · win rate 62% (1070–646, n=1716) · was PM monthly #975 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-12.4K
Record
1070W / 646L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 1716 settled
Batting Avg
36.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1062
Source
PM monthly #975
Trades
580
Markets
1,797
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers $3.1K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys $1.8K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Cardinals)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $327 · now 38¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (60% of 29)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Racing Club $293 · now 12¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Real Madrid CF)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over $145 · now 100¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-11-01?No $69 · now 68¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (20% of 12)
- Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5Over $55 · now 56¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
1,405 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 59¢- College Football
+8 pts
side won 63% of 153 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +13%
- NHL
+6 pts
side won 64% of 47 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +5%
- Other Sports
+4 pts
side won 56% of 36 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 60% of 213 at an average 63¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 15% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 40% of 258)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 59% of 738)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 79% of 354)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.