Bills vs. Vikings

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (27%) · Bills at 63¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 10

Bills63¢Vikings37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 27%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.7K

Combined PnL

-$118.21

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 11 top traders (27%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills63%

Vikings38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills3 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares24,097

Combined PnL-$206.4

Vikings8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,273

Combined PnL+$88.18

Bills — 27%Vikings — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Billsavg 62.9¢	$15.1K	$14.9K	-$205.32	53% 656-578 (1234)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Vikingsavg 36.3¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	+$13.86	54% 18234-15347 (33581)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36.3¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$144.45
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 64.7¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$130.58
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$70.43	49% 437-460 (897)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Billsavg 63¢	$995	$990	+$5	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 63¢	$630	$620	-$5
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36.5¢	$365	$370	+$10
GC GC-PARB<$100	Billsavg 63¢	$495	$495	+$5	64% 10024-5638 (15662)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 63¢	$315	$310	-$2.5
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 36¢	$180	$185	+$7.5
SN SnakeBallCTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$429.03	$440.95	+$11.92	51% 37791-37025 (74816)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Vikingsavg 38.7¢	$243.45	$232.71	-$3.14	54% 1231-1044 (2275)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$126.34	$131.59	+$5.25	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.1¢	$91.79	$94.17	+$2.38	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
RL RLWG<$100	Billsavg 64¢	$47.99	$43.39	-$1.05	50% 8313-8370 (16683)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.1¢	$14.99	$15.47	+$0.48	54% 9826-8264 (18090)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 36.7¢	$12.96	$13.07	+$0.53	49% 261-274 (535)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 35¢	$4.69	$4.96	+$0.34	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Billsavg 63¢	$3.41	$3.35	-$0.03	48% 7403-7937 (15340)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Bills

Invested

$15,098.63

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$205.32

Record

53%

656-578 (1234)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$10,574.9

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$13.86

Record

54%

18234-15347 (33581)

Both legs:

Vikings$7,423.7836.3¢+$144.45

Bills$3,151.1164.7¢-$130.58

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Vikings

Invested

$1,711.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$70.43

Record

49%

437-460 (897)

NM-PARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$995

Value

$990

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

Both legs:

Invested

$495

Value

$495

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10024-5638 (15662)

Both legs:

Invested

$429.03

Value

$440.95

PnL

+$11.92

Record

51%

37791-37025 (74816)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Vikings

Invested

$243.45

Value

$232.71

PnL

-$3.14

Record

54%

1231-1044 (2275)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$126.34

Value

$131.59

PnL

+$5.25

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$91.79

Value

$94.17

PnL

+$2.38

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

RLWG<$100

Bills

Invested

$47.99

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

8313-8370 (16683)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$14.99

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

9826-8264 (18090)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$12.96

Value

$13.07

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

261-274 (535)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Oddstorm<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

7403-7937 (15340)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

3 of 11 top traders (27%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.