Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Canucks, while the market favors Jets (66%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Canucks vs. Jets

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (43%) · Canucks at 35¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6

Canucks35¢Jets65¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canucks

Consensus Traders

Canucks 43%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$51.18

Smart Money Entry

34¢ → 34.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canucks35%

Jets66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canucks3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares9,597

Combined PnL+$48.03

Jets4 traders

Total Value$770.46

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL+$3.16

Canucks — 43%Jets — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Canucks) and the top 1000 (6 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleCanucks 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Canucksavg 34¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$45.36	49% 131-137 (268)
AN AnonymousUsername	Jetsavg 65¢	$570.68	$575.07	+$4.39	69% 7207-3189 (10396)
VeryLucky888CTR	Canucksavg 34¢	$130.56	$132.48	+$1.92	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
HE Herdonia	Jetsavg 65.7¢	$116.98	$115.77	-$1.21	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jetsavg 65¢	$65	$65	+$0	55% 9738-8127 (17865)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Canucksavg 34.1¢	$50.59	$50.45	+$0.74	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
GH ghorrock<$100	Jetsavg 66¢	$14.64	$14.63	-$0.02	58% 21212-15411 (36623)

taylorsversionCTR

Canucks

Invested

$3,082.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$45.36

Record

49%

131-137 (268)

AnonymousUsername

Jets

Invested

$570.68

Value

$575.07

PnL

+$4.39

Record

69%

7207-3189 (10396)

VeryLucky888CTR

Canucks

Invested

$130.56

Value

$132.48

PnL

+$1.92

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

Herdonia

Jets

Invested

$116.98

Value

$115.77

PnL

-$1.21

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Pan9X<$100

Jets

Invested

$65

Value

$65

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

9738-8127 (17865)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$50.59

Value

$50.45

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

ghorrock<$100

Jets

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

21212-15411 (36623)

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Canucks) and the top 1000 (6 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleCanucks 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.