South Carolina State vs. Howard

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold South Carolina State (40%) · South Carolina State at 84¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 6

South Carolina State84¢Howard16¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Carolina State

Consensus Traders

South Carolina State 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 83.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina State at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina State

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Carolina State84%

Howard17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Carolina State6 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares28,945

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Howard9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares27,723

Combined PnL-$73.86

South Carolina State — 40%Howard — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Carolina State 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSouth Carolina State 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000South Carolina State 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	South Carolina Stateavg 80.4¢	$12.3K	$13.4K	+$1.1K	53% 1353-1176 (2529)
IM imjustkenisghey	South Carolina Stateavg 89.6¢	$9.4K	$9.0K	+$96.91	49% 437-460 (897)
CUTJALENHURTS	South Carolina Stateavg 87.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$21.84	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Howardavg 20.2¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$548.41	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
nigiri99CTR	Howardavg 9.1¢	$837.5	$1.1K	+$389.78	46% 8596-10247 (18843)
RN1CTR	Howardavg 18.7¢	$990.8	$1.1K	+$96	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	South Carolina Stateavg 79.5¢	$690.68	$747.22	+$56.53	43% 319-417 (736)
38 38791873984189CTR	Howardavg 11.5¢	$258.67	$586.49	-$74.89	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	South Carolina Stateavg 92¢	$552	$516	-$36	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Howardavg 20¢	$200	$205	+$5	49% 1123-1164 (2287)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	South Carolina Stateavg 87.1¢	$176.11	$137.48	-$8.46	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
└ South Carolina State leg	South Carolina Stateavg 87.1¢	$85.33	$83.79	-$6.73
└ Howard leg	Howardavg 14.8¢	$54.88	$53.69	-$1.73
PT PT-S7CTR	Howardavg 21¢	$140.07	$136.73	-$3.34	49% 3218-3391 (6609)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Howardavg 8.2¢	$43.36	$73.85	+$30.49	50% 1340-1327 (2667)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Howardavg 8¢	$42.06	$73.6	+$31.54	49% 14720-15397 (30117)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	South Carolina Stateavg 91¢	$65.67	$62.7	-$2.97	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
└ South Carolina State leg	South Carolina Stateavg 91¢	$45.5	$40.75	-$4.75
└ Howard leg	Howardavg 17¢	$20.17	$21.95	+$1.78
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	South Carolina Stateavg 88.3¢	$5.59	$5.44	-$0.15	50% 21206-21476 (42682)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Howardavg 17.4¢	$1.74	$1.7	-$0.04	60% 2746-1856 (4602)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

South Carolina State

Invested

$12,277.8

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

1353-1176 (2529)

imjustkenisghey

South Carolina State

Invested

$9,352.65

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$96.91

Record

49%

437-460 (897)

CUTJALENHURTS

South Carolina State

Invested

$1,540.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$21.84

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

6512395314597884CTR

Howard

Invested

$1,789.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$548.41

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

nigiri99CTR

Howard

Invested

$837.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$389.78

Record

46%

8596-10247 (18843)

RN1CTR

Howard

Invested

$990.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$96

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

ENDBOSSLLC

South Carolina State

Invested

$690.68

Value

$747.22

PnL

+$56.53

Record

43%

319-417 (736)

38791873984189CTR

Howard

Invested

$258.67

Value

$586.49

PnL

-$74.89

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

South Carolina State

Invested

$552

Value

$516

PnL

-$36

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Howard

Invested

$200

Value

$205

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

1123-1164 (2287)

Pan9XARB<$100

South Carolina State

Invested

$176.11

Value

$137.48

PnL

-$8.46

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

Both legs:

South Carolina State$85.3387.1¢-$6.73

Howard$54.8814.8¢-$1.73

PT-S7CTR

Howard

Invested

$140.07

Value

$136.73

PnL

-$3.34

Record

49%

3218-3391 (6609)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Howard

Invested

$43.36

Value

$73.85

PnL

+$30.49

Record

50%

1340-1327 (2667)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Howard

Invested

$42.06

Value

$73.6

PnL

+$31.54

Record

49%

14720-15397 (30117)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

South Carolina State

Invested

$65.67

Value

$62.7

PnL

-$2.97

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

Both legs:

South Carolina State$45.591¢-$4.75

Howard$20.1717¢+$1.78

omnibus-076daa<$100

South Carolina State

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

21206-21476 (42682)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Howard

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

2746-1856 (4602)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina State at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina State

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Carolina State 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSouth Carolina State 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000South Carolina State 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Carolina State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.