Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex Molcan

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Molcan (54%) · Alex Molcan at 100¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 8

Nuno Borges<1¢Alex Molcan>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Molcan

Consensus Traders

Alex Molcan 54%

Total Value

$60.3K

Combined PnL

$6.5K

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 100¢

+59% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Molcan at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Molcan

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuno Borges0%

Alex Molcan100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Molcan13 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares52,614

Combined PnL+$10.1K

Nuno Borges11 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares23,658

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Alex Molcan — 54%Nuno Borges — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Alex Molcanavg 43.2¢	$8.8K	$18.9K	+$7.4K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
UP UpTheBlues	Alex Molcanavg 76.5¢	$14.5K	$17.1K	+$2.5K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Alex Molcanavg 92.5¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$30	65% 289-159 (448)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alex Molcanavg 73.1¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$247.69	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
KK kkookkooCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 63.1¢	$6.2K	$4.1K	$-2.0K	51% 608-589 (1197)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Alex Molcanavg 32.1¢	$973.2	$2.7K	+$284.25	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 61¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$707.69	51% 121-118 (239)
K5 k56CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$170.43	57% 888-657 (1545)
tradecraft	Alex Molcanavg 70¢	$1.2K	$983.92	-$203.57	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
TH thestingsnake	Alex Molcanavg 64.6¢	$740.61	$787.81	+$205.89	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 57¢	$999.99	$736.84	-$263.16	54% 732-617 (1349)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 59¢	$822.03	$711.86	-$110.17	61% 129-81 (210)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 59¢	$680.32	$688.52	+$8.2	53% 456-407 (863)
poshposh	Alex Molcanavg 87.8¢	$166.23	$186.19	+$19.96	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Alex Molcanavg 41¢	$86.1	$112.89	+$26.79	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
BE berlinskies	Alex Molcanavg 90.4¢	$99.99	$102.83	+$2.84	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
HRTrading	Alex Molcanavg 42.2¢	$74.3	$102.22	+$27.92	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 58¢	$102.09	$73.92	-$28.16	65% 1758-962 (2720)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Alex Molcanavg 37¢	$37	$58	+$21	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Alex Molcanavg 40¢	$18.04	$26.16	+$8.12	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 26.9¢	$296.79	$17.64	-$279.15	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 57.4¢	$216.62	$10.04	+$1.98	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
RN1CTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 2.8¢	$8.11	$4.63	-$3.48	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 56¢	$5.6	$4.2	-$1.4	85% 5885-1004 (6889)

omnibus-076daa

Alex Molcan

Invested

$8,795.82

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

UpTheBlues

Alex Molcan

Invested

$14,533.68

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

01258787xy48487484545122

Alex Molcan

Invested

$5,435.15

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

65%

289-159 (448)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alex Molcan

Invested

$4,765.51

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$247.69

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

kkookkooCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$6,214.61

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

608-589 (1197)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Alex Molcan

Invested

$973.2

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$284.25

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$2,272.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$707.69

Record

51%

121-118 (239)

k56CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$1,593.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$170.43

Record

57%

888-657 (1545)

tradecraft

Alex Molcan

Invested

$1,187.49

Value

$983.92

PnL

-$203.57

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

thestingsnake

Alex Molcan

Invested

$740.61

Value

$787.81

PnL

+$205.89

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

pltrkr111CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$999.99

Value

$736.84

PnL

-$263.16

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$822.03

Value

$711.86

PnL

-$110.17

Record

61%

129-81 (210)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$680.32

Value

$688.52

PnL

+$8.2

Record

53%

456-407 (863)

poshposh

Alex Molcan

Invested

$166.23

Value

$186.19

PnL

+$19.96

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

LeLynxMalynx

Alex Molcan

Invested

$86.1

Value

$112.89

PnL

+$26.79

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

berlinskies

Alex Molcan

Invested

$99.99

Value

$102.83

PnL

+$2.84

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

HRTrading

Alex Molcan

Invested

$74.3

Value

$102.22

PnL

+$27.92

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

darkumbreon88CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$102.09

Value

$73.92

PnL

-$28.16

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

topdogbigboi<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$37

Value

$58

PnL

+$21

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$18.04

Value

$26.16

PnL

+$8.12

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$296.79

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$279.15

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$216.62

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

RN1CTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$8.11

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$3.48

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$5.6

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Molcan at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Molcan

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Molcan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.