Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 70¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 4

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 70¢

+32% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares24,781

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,784

Combined PnL-$289.16

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
twinna	Noavg 49.9¢	$5.3K	$7.6K	+$2.2K	50% 92-93 (185)
FL flawfence	Noavg 54.6¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$417.49	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$677.62	61% 203-132 (335)
mountaindewd	Noavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$400	54% 344-290 (634)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 61.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$82.47	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
KO korda77	Noavg 58.5¢	$960.09	$1.1K	+$189.37	52% 5045-4715 (9760)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 62.3¢	$356.39	$398.34	+$47.49	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$330	$300	-$30	83% 3802-801 (4603)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 62¢	$242.58	$277.79	+$31.3	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$290.94	$180.77	-$110.18	71% 318-130 (448)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$225.07	$180.6	-$44.47	38% 20-32 (52)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$194.76	$152.16	-$29.07	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 67¢	$115.4	$120.57	+$5.17	58% 182-132 (314)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$131.53	$114.3	-$17.23	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$96.96	$90.9	-$6.06	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$64.95	$71.9	+$6.95	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$78.81	$49.26	-$29.55	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
UbuntuTrading<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$39.39	$39.95	+$0.56	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100	Noavg 62¢	$31	$35.5	+$4	67% 751-378 (1129)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$37	$30	-$7	66% 955-482 (1437)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$22.38	$27.88	+$5.5	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$27.79	$22.57	-$5.22	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
JustADonkCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$20.28	$11.7	-$8.58	55% 900-743 (1643)
0X 0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$4.8	$3	-$1.8	70% 31-13 (44)

twinna

Invested

$5,339.62

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

flawfence

Invested

$2,132.36

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$417.49

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$1,565.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$677.62

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

mountaindewd

Invested

$1,349.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$400

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,331.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$82.47

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

korda77

Invested

$960.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$189.37

Record

52%

5045-4715 (9760)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$356.39

Value

$398.34

PnL

+$47.49

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$330

Value

$300

PnL

-$30

Record

83%

3802-801 (4603)

cocococococo

Invested

$242.58

Value

$277.79

PnL

+$31.3

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$290.94

Value

$180.77

PnL

-$110.18

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$225.07

Value

$180.6

PnL

-$44.47

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$194.76

Value

$152.16

PnL

-$29.07

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$115.4

Value

$120.57

PnL

+$5.17

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.53

Value

$114.3

PnL

-$17.23

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.96

Value

$90.9

PnL

-$6.06

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.95

Value

$71.9

PnL

+$6.95

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.81

Value

$49.26

PnL

-$29.55

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

UbuntuTrading<$100

Invested

$39.39

Value

$39.95

PnL

+$0.56

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$4

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37

Value

$30

PnL

-$7

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$5.5

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.79

Value

$22.57

PnL

-$5.22

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

JustADonkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.28

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$8.58

Record

55%

900-743 (1643)

0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

-$1.8

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.8%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.