Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 71¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
22
Yes 73%
1 arb excluded
$38.2K
$4.3K
59.2¢ → 70.5¢
+19% since entry · 16 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 71%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
16 traders
Top 2 hold 38%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
206 consensus flips
76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 twinna | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $5.4K | $7.4K | +$2.1K | 50% 92-93 (185) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Yesavg 63.1¢ | $4.3K | $4.8K | +$503.06 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
BR brte | Yesavg 63¢ | $3.8K | $4.2K | +$480 | — 10-6 (16) |
 mountaindewd | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.8K | +$637.5 | 54% 344-290 (634) |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$137.94 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Noavg 35.9¢ | $3.6K | $3.0K | -$637.9 | 59% 2660-1871 (4531) |
FU Fulgurator | Yesavg 62¢ | $2.5K | $2.8K | +$340 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
FL flawfenceARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$8.67 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $944.98 | $1.2K | +$275.35 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $774.23 | $507.55 | -$266.68 | |
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 70¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$11.44 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
TR troim | Yesavg 47¢ | $930 | $1.4K | +$470 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
CO cocococococo | Yesavg 62.8¢ | $925.7 | $1.0K | +$114.28 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Yesavg 48¢ | $38.88 | $643.3 | +$206.78 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
KO korda77CTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $663.52 | $483.09 | -$180.42 | 52% 5045-4715 (9760) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Noavg 44.2¢ | $451.23 | $430.4 | -$20.83 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $222.85 | $294.96 | +$74.22 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 56¢ | $39.76 | $234.5 | +$50.25 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 Zaratustra | Yesavg 52¢ | $104 | $210 | +$50.5 | 62% 351-214 (565) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 61.8¢ | $162.57 | $185.42 | +$22.86 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Noavg 32.3¢ | $160.95 | $134.84 | -$10.87 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 nicoco89 | Yesavg 54¢ | $103.28 | $133.88 | +$31.56 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $168.3 | $105.4 | -$62.9 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $81.7 | $65.04 | -$16.66 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $30.5 | $35 | +$4.75 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
twinnaInvested
$5,360.97
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
50%
92-93 (185)
BiDiFakePollsInvested
$4,300.41
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$503.06
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
Invested
$3,780
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$480
Record
—
10-6 (16)
mountaindewdInvested
$3,239.97
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$637.5
Record
54%
344-290 (634)
mrworldwideInvested
$3,315.87
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$137.94
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$3,595.67
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$637.9
Record
59%
2660-1871 (4531)
Invested
$2,480
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$340
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
Invested
$1,719.27
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$8.67
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,601.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$11.44
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$930
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$470
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Invested
$925.7
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$114.28
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$38.88
Value
$643.3
PnL
+$206.78
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$663.52
Value
$483.09
PnL
-$180.42
Record
52%
5045-4715 (9760)
Invested
$451.23
Value
$430.4
PnL
-$20.83
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Ryxon21Invested
$222.85
Value
$294.96
PnL
+$74.22
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$39.76
Value
$234.5
PnL
+$50.25
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
ZaratustraInvested
$104
Value
$210
PnL
+$50.5
Record
62%
351-214 (565)
Invested
$162.57
Value
$185.42
PnL
+$22.86
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$160.95
Value
$134.84
PnL
-$10.87
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
nicoco89Invested
$103.28
Value
$133.88
PnL
+$31.56
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$168.3
Value
$105.4
PnL
-$62.9
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$81.7
Value
$65.04
PnL
-$16.66
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$30.5
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.75
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.