Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 92¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$6.2K
$196.83
88.6¢ → 91.8¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1799h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 89.1¢ | $5.8K | $6.0K | +$166.51 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 89.5¢ | $57.48 | $58.56 | +$1.08 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 55.9¢ | $34.85 | $50.16 | +$15.31 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $43.54 | $47.92 | +$4.11 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Noavg 10.8¢ | $53.64 | $45.3 | -$8.34 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 siick<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $9.53 | $13.58 | +$3.98 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $0.73 | $10.7 | +$9.97 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
KO korda77<$100 | Yes | $4.45 | $4.45 | +$4.21 | 52% 5046-4713 (9759) |
elmcap2Invested
$5,844.27
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$166.51
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$57.48
Value
$58.56
PnL
+$1.08
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$50.16
PnL
+$15.31
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$43.54
Value
$47.92
PnL
+$4.11
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$53.64
Value
$45.3
PnL
-$8.34
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
siick<$100Invested
$9.53
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$3.98
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$9.97
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$4.21
Record
52%
5046-4713 (9759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.