Consensus PnL $40K · win rate 91% (10–1, n=11) · PM monthly #775 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$39.9K
Record
10W / 1L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#230
Source
PM monthly #775
Trades
5
Markets
20
Volume
$180.6K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $11K · now 72¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Yes $11K · now 75¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.2K · now 92¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.9K · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $2.8K · now 65¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 43¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (74% of 38)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $550 · now 28¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $187 · now 10¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 50¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where legioncre's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 70%(won 100% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.