Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 75¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$119.49

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 75¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares14,211

Combined PnL+$352.95

No4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares10,323

Combined PnL-$233.45

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE legioncre	Yesavg 72.5¢	$10.2K	$10.6K	+$349.98	— 10-4 (14)
StudyPredictionCTR	Noavg 26.9¢	$3.8K	$2.6K	-$234.42	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
Socialista<$100	Yesavg 73.2¢	$74	$75	+$1	63% 2725-1611 (4336)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$27.04	$28.11	+$1.07	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$9.96	$11.67	+$1.71	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.75	+$0.25	73% 41-15 (56)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$1.11	$1.03	-$0.08	52% 5046-4713 (9759)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 27.6¢	$0.38	$0.35	-$0.03	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

legioncre

Yes

Invested

$10,217.94

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$349.98

Record

—

10-4 (14)

StudyPredictionCTR

Invested

$3,803.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$234.42

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

Socialista<$100

Yes

Invested

$74

Value

$75

PnL

+$1

Record

63%

2725-1611 (4336)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$27.04

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$1.07

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.96

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$1.71

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.