Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

15 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 89¢ · $91K held · ends Nov 4

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$91.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 89%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 25 top traders (60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$73.5K

Total Shares82,661

Combined PnL-$199.04

No10 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares163,266

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4871h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AngryRhino	Yesavg 90.8¢	$24.3K	$23.8K	-$617.25	69% 133-59 (192)
Valen9	Yesavg 88.9¢	$14.1K	$14.1K	-$61.47	60% 406-274 (680)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 86¢	$12.7K	$13.1K	+$368.84	47% 474-534 (1008)
SU supersmardCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$14.2K	$12.7K	-$911.05	39% 46-71 (117)
LE legioncre	Yesavg 87¢	$8.7K	$8.9K	+$150	— 10-4 (14)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 89.1¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$55.27	76% 102-32 (134)
PI piepedCTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$359.91	42% 71-100 (171)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 89.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$31.29	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 91¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$46.7	68% 1239-582 (1821)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 88.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0.11	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 88¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$8.5	89% 4652-547 (5199)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 90.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$41.22	94% 442-28 (470)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 11.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$11.1	40% 704-1061 (1765)
bernardbulletinCTR	Noavg 8.2¢	$597.54	$798.79	+$242.01	69% 987-450 (1437)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 13¢	$722.15	$611.05	-$83.32	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
probability	Yesavg 87.4¢	$529.32	$539.43	+$10.11	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 89¢	$97.9	$491.17	-$0.68	53% 906-789 (1695)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Yesavg 87¢	$352.56	$360.66	+$6.08	55% 78-65 (143)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 8¢	$160	$220	+$70	36% 190-333 (523)
mrworldwideCTR	Noavg 14¢	$252	$198	-$45	69% 804-359 (1163)
Talophex	Yesavg 88¢	$176	$178	+$1	91% 929-95 (1024)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$10.89	$46.82	+$35.92	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$19.11	$20.47	-$0.33	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$13.8	$19.3	+$0.88	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$9	$11	+$2.5	72% 1535-585 (2120)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$24,262.34

Value

$23.8K

PnL

-$617.25

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

Valen9

Yes

Invested

$14,131.21

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$61.47

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$12,688.25

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$368.84

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

supersmardCTR

Invested

$14,199.11

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$911.05

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

legioncre

Yes

Invested

$8,700

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$150

Record

—

10-4 (14)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$3,627.89

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$55.27

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

piepedCTR

Invested

$2,337.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$359.91

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,888.05

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$31.29

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$1,700.02

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$46.7

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$1,593

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$1,496

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.5

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,538.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$41.22

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$1,583.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.1

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

bernardbulletinCTR

Invested

$597.54

Value

$798.79

PnL

+$242.01

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$722.15

Value

$611.05

PnL

-$83.32

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

probability

Yes

Invested

$529.32

Value

$539.43

PnL

+$10.11

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$97.9

Value

$491.17

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Yes

Invested

$352.56

Value

$360.66

PnL

+$6.08

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$160

Value

$220

PnL

+$70

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

mrworldwideCTR

Invested

$252

Value

$198

PnL

-$45

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Talophex

Yes

Invested

$176

Value

$178

PnL

+$1

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$46.82

PnL

+$35.92

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.11

Value

$20.47

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$0.88

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$11

PnL

+$2.5

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 89%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 25 top traders (60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4871h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.