Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 92¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

-$55.59

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 91.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares14,225

Combined PnL+$296.03

No4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares29,964

Combined PnL-$351.62

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE legioncre	Yesavg 89¢	$8.9K	$9.2K	+$250	— 10-4 (14)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 91.6¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$39.89	76% 102-32 (134)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 10.4¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$464.68	40% 704-1061 (1765)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 90.3¢	$572.28	$579.56	+$7.28	38% 20-32 (52)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 6¢	$277.33	$404.19	+$112.28	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$93	$91.5	-$1.5	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$35.32	$36.45	+$1.13	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
probability<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$8.8	$9.15	+$0.35	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
SU supersmardCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$6.12	$6.12	-$0.34	39% 46-71 (117)

legioncre

Yes

Invested

$8,900

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$250

Record

—

10-4 (14)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$3,051.67

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$39.89

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$2,589.75

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$464.68

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$572.28

Value

$579.56

PnL

+$7.28

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$277.33

Value

$404.19

PnL

+$112.28

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$91.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$35.32

Value

$36.45

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.35

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

supersmardCTR<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.34

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.