Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 73% (411–153, n=564) · was PM monthly #930 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.4K
Record
411W / 153L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 564 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#626
Source
PM monthly #930
Trades
64
Markets
577
Volume
$98.9K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $23K · now 99¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $5.5K · now 89¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $5.3K · now 26¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (64% of 23)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes $5.2K · now 37¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (59% of 17)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $1.7K · now 36¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
Specialties
334 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 74¢- Geopolitics
+18 pts
side won 79% of 19 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +38%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 71% of 314 at an average 75¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 36% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 62% of 85)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 76% of 234)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.