Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$25.4K
-$608.27
81.5¢ → 84.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $11.9K | $11.4K | -$523.01 | 53% 2098-1864 (3962) |
 probability | Noavg 76.2¢ | $4.1K | $4.5K | +$398.75 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $4.4K | $3.7K | $-1.1K | 50% 5951-6042 (11993) |
OR OrwellFactory | Noavg 71¢ | $2.5K | $3.0K | +$473.62 | 57% 352-262 (614) |
MI mishipolis | Noavg 83.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$7.76 | 50% 4583-4520 (9103) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 63.9¢ | $652.13 | $840 | +$205 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $504.17 | $415.89 | -$88.11 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $25.23 | $24.36 | -$0.87 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $8.72 | $11.63 | +$2.91 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
RI Rin2xCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $17.4 | $8 | -$10.15 | 86% 2156-340 (2496) |
Invested
$11,880.43
Value
$11.4K
PnL
-$523.01
Record
53%
2098-1864 (3962)
probabilityInvested
$4,134.21
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$398.75
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$4,425.62
Value
$3.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
5951-6042 (11993)
Invested
$2,495.43
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$473.62
Record
57%
352-262 (614)
Invested
$1,515.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$7.76
Record
50%
4583-4520 (9103)
Invested
$652.13
Value
$840
PnL
+$205
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Invested
$504.17
Value
$415.89
PnL
-$88.11
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$25.23
Value
$24.36
PnL
-$0.87
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.72
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$2.91
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$8
PnL
-$10.15
Record
86%
2156-340 (2496)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.