Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 40.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 26¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 1

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.3K

Combined PnL

-$112.91

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 25.5¢

-51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares45,740

Combined PnL-$23.72

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares22,178

Combined PnL-$89.18

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 52.5¢	$21.0K	$21.0K	-$0	53% 615-541 (1156)
EdZachary	Underavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	-$100	40% 94-142 (236)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$63.62	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$36.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$27.04
JustADonkCTR	Overavg 53¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$27.78	55% 900-743 (1643)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Underavg 47.4¢	$750	$751.98	+$1.98	47% 142-163 (305)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 47¢	$201.6	$203.75	+$2.14	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$104.66	$132.43	+$27.77	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$70.9	$101.64	+$30.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$51.95	$30.79	-$2.97
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$86.73	$97.31	+$10.58	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$60	$74.4	+$14.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.3¢	$26.73	$22.91	-$3.82
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$25.97	$25.97	+$0.25	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 48¢	$25.44	$25.17	-$0.27	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$21.88	$25	+$3.13	83% 2683-538 (3221)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 47¢	$450.53	$20.44	+$6.77	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 47¢	$16.18	$16.35	+$0.17	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
GG GGLPL<$100	Underavg 47¢	$10.49	$10.6	+$0.11	50% 697-693 (1390)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.5	-$0.1	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.81	$2.49	-$0.32	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$0.95	$1.95	+$1	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$20,999.98

Value

$21.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

EdZachary

Under

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$100

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,374.44

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$63.62

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$3,832.8852¢+$36.58

Under$2,541.5647¢+$27.04

JustADonkCTR

Over

Invested

$2,944.15

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$27.78

Record

55%

900-743 (1643)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$751.98

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

142-163 (305)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$201.6

Value

$203.75

PnL

+$2.14

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$104.66

Value

$132.43

PnL

+$27.77

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

Both legs:

Under$70.946.7¢+$30.74

Over$51.9555.7¢-$2.97

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$86.73

Value

$97.31

PnL

+$10.58

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Under$6050¢+$14.4

Over$26.7344.3¢-$3.82

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.97

Value

$25.97

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$25.44

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.88

Value

$25

PnL

+$3.13

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$450.53

Value

$20.44

PnL

+$6.77

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$16.18

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

GGLPL<$100

Under

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.