Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 1.8¢

-30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares150,357

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$29.08

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

73 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$1.5K	$945.75	-$572.27	67% 300-145 (445)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$342.51	$459.45	+$116.94	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$626.02	$414.63	-$211.37	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$584.83	$377.9	-$206.93	53% 615-541 (1156)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$264.35	$155.47	-$108.88	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$52.32	$111.69	-$75.29	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$102.37	$81.04	-$21.33	66% 1107-565 (1672)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$110.2	$50.75	-$59.4	47% 217-240 (457)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$24.31	$24.17	-$0.14	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$15.64	$15.64	-$11.44	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$180.68	$14.51	-$58.67	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$4.77	$4.91	+$0.15	73% 41-15 (56)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.55	$4.42	+$4.42	49% 1830-1896 (3726)

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,518.12

Value

$945.75

PnL

-$572.27

Record

67%

300-145 (445)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.51

Value

$459.45

PnL

+$116.94

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$626.02

Value

$414.63

PnL

-$211.37

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Yes

Invested

$584.83

Value

$377.9

PnL

-$206.93

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$264.35

Value

$155.47

PnL

-$108.88

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$52.32

Value

$111.69

PnL

-$75.29

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.37

Value

$81.04

PnL

-$21.33

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.2

Value

$50.75

PnL

-$59.4

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$24.17

PnL

-$0.14

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.64

PnL

-$11.44

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.68

Value

$14.51

PnL

-$58.67

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.15

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.55

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$4.42

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

73 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3367.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

3467.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.