Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 68% (376–179, n=555) · PM monthly #603 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$23.1K
Record
376W / 179L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 555 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#821
Source
PM monthly #603
Trades
106
Markets
564
Volume
$442.9K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over $3.0K · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under $1.6K · now 98¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (Over)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $1.1K · now 100¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under $586 · now 75¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (44% of 31)
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?Yes $408 · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over $354 · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (58% of 16)
- Hamburg Towers vs. Mitteldeutscher BCHamburg Towers $204 · now 27¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Mitteldeutscher BC)
Specialties
489 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 68¢- Other Sports
+14 pts
side won 83% of 36 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +11%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 73% of 99 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+10 pts
side won 67% of 18 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 64% of 11 at an average 77¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −17%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 25% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 49% of 67)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 59% of 118)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 84% of 276)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.